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The Insight Research Corporation
lays out three scenarios and models
the economic impact of each out to
2011. These three scenarios are:
- Traditional telecom
- All Public Internet
- All wireless
Theirs is a “what if”
study that is technical and thematically
neutral: likely winners and losers,
likely revenues for each.
“Continuing turmoil throughout
the worldwide telecommunications
industry warrants a systematic
look forward at the possible repercussions
of the forces that are now pushing
the industry forward: the end
user’s demand
for more bandwidth; increased reliance
on mobility services; and the
end users’ assessment of
cost versus performance.” “This
study imagines the future of the
telecommunication industry using
a premise that
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I
maintain that individuals will make
a difference in the outcome of these
evolutionary trends. |
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Individuals
count
I maintain that individuals will make a difference in the outcome of these evolutionary
trends. Today mixes of forces leading to dominance of all of these are present
and the tide currently can lean in any direction. We are at a pivotal position.
What each of us decides, inventors, investors, consumers –
will provide a force tipping
the results from future potentials
to future realities. This
month, a movie based on the
historical events at Thermopolis,
will premiere in theaters.
I use this example because
just about any military historian
will agree that this was
a pivotal point in history
decided by some 300 energetic
soldiers who stood off thousands
of Persians. Yet, remember
also the leaders and military
planners who sent them there.
If they had not followed
this plan and held the Persians,
we would all likely be speaking
a derivative of Farsi.
Decisions count
Deciding what to do - executives
deciding where to put
resources; engineers deciding
what to learn and where
to work –
are
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everyone has considered: what
if the Internet or my wireless
provider is the only way I communicate
five years from now?” ["The Future
of Telecommunications 2006-2011, “;
The Insight Research Corporation]
But how will this actually play out
in the future? Behind this are pivotal
evolutionary choices that will be made
by venture capitalists, planners and
executives in many different companies.
But ultimately the winners will be
determined by consumers.
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elements of Game Theory.
In this our choices are
not independent, but also
involve interaction and
sometimes cooperation with
the choices of many others.
These are games that involve
coordination, yet where the
communication of information
is not complete or perfect,
and intentions are quite
complex. Lots of strategies
present themselves, many
of them overlapping. But
investing in all strategies
is certainly too expensive
for the executive, and impossible
for the engineer. Here the
qualified planner can make their
salary worthwhile.
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