Pipeline Publishing, Volume 3, Issue 10
This Month's Issue: 
Beyond Quad Play: XoIP 
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Buying Telecom Futures?

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The Insight Research Corporation lays out three scenarios and models the economic impact of each out to 2011. These three scenarios are:

  • Traditional telecom
  • All Public Internet
  • All wireless

Theirs is a “what if” study that is technical and thematically neutral: likely winners and losers, likely revenues for each.

“Continuing turmoil throughout the worldwide telecommunications industry warrants a systematic look forward at the possible repercussions of the forces that are now pushing the industry forward: the end user’s demand for more bandwidth; increased reliance on mobility services; and the end users’ assessment of cost versus performance.” “This study imagines the future of the telecommunication industry using a premise that

I maintain that individuals will make a difference in the outcome of these evolutionary trends.

Individuals count
I maintain that individuals will make a difference in the outcome of these evolutionary trends. Today mixes of forces leading to dominance of all of these are present and the tide currently can lean in any direction. We are at a pivotal position. What each of us decides, inventors, investors, consumers – will provide a force tipping the results from future potentials to future realities. This month, a movie based on the historical events at Thermopolis, will premiere in theaters. I use this example because just about any military historian will agree that this was a pivotal point in history decided by some 300 energetic soldiers who stood off thousands of Persians. Yet, remember also the leaders and military planners who sent them there. If they had not followed this plan and held the Persians, we would all likely be speaking a derivative of Farsi.

Decisions count
Deciding what to do - executives deciding where to put resources; engineers deciding what to learn and where to work – are


everyone has considered: what if the Internet or my wireless provider is the only way I communicate five years from now?” ["The Future of Telecommunications 2006-2011, “; The Insight Research Corporation]

But how will this actually play out in the future? Behind this are pivotal evolutionary choices that will be made by venture capitalists, planners and executives in many different companies. But ultimately the winners will be determined by consumers.

elements of Game Theory. In this our choices are not independent, but also involve interaction and sometimes cooperation with the choices of many others. These are games that involve coordination, yet where the communication of information is not complete or perfect, and intentions are quite complex. Lots of strategies present themselves, many of them overlapping. But investing in all strategies is certainly too expensive for the executive, and impossible for the engineer. Here the qualified planner can make their salary worthwhile.


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